Experts disagree on how much pressre an employer mandate would put on companies to lay off workers or skimp on wage hikes.

No matter what shape it ultimately takes, reform of the health care system will have a major impact on the U.S. economy and employers’ calculations of worker compensation. In two words: Jobs and wages. Where will the losses and gains occur in both? That question has received renewed attention recently as the health reform debate deepens and as the broad effects of altering one seventh of the U.S. economy begin to sink in.

Exactly what economic effects health reform will have awaits the details of President Clinton’s proposal and its overhaul by Congress over the next year. But many health care groups have begun to speculate over what might happen if, say, employers are required to provide health insurance and pay 50% to 80% of the tab for it, possibly by means of a fixed payroll-based premium.

Small business groups have complained the loudest. The National Federation of Independent 600,000 small business owners and workers, has lobbied against an employer mandate for months, claiming that it will put millions of jobs in jeopardy as companies struggle with–and small businesses potentially buckle under–the burden of paying for health care. The group has noted often in congressional and public briefings that 75% of job growth in the last 15 years has come from companies with fewer than 100 workers.

Study supports projections

A study commissioned by NFIB and released this spring appears to support NFIB’s grim projections–but others find the study less than convincing. Conducted by the CONSAD Research Corp., a Pittsburgh research firm specializing in employment forecasting, the study estimates that between 6.6 million and 16.5 million jobs in companies with fewer than 500 workers would be put “at risk” by an employer mandate. That’s out of a pool of 68.7 million jobs nation-wide in firms that size. (The figure excludes farm workers.)