Now that the advertising years of plenty have given way to famine, media executives give the lowdown on renegotiating deals, the resurgence of one-to-one relationships, and the need to prove relevance to a cynical market.

Lorne Manly: There seems to be a hope, almost a deeply held belief, that fourth quarter budgets are going to loosen up and things are going to get better for the magazine world. Is that wishful thinking?

Paula Brooks: I think there will be some fourth quarter money, but probably not as much as we’ve seen in the nine quarters of madness we’ve come out of. What we’re seeing with our clients is that they are approving things slowly–but they are approving. I don’t think it’s wishful thinking at this point, but cautious optimism.

Michael Clinton: I agree. Advertisers are more cautious, a little more close to the vest. We’re seeing that aggressive marketers are optimistic about the fourth quarter. The aggressive, smart marketers are methodically building a very strong offensive position to grab share, grab real estate positions, to strengthen their positions at the retail level. There is a lot of shrewd maneuvering to strengthen one’s relative position.

Manly: What form does that shrewd maneuvering take? Are you seeing increased budgets?

Clinton: Yes.

Brooks: We’re renegotiating packages to get more pages. If we negotiated the whole thing at a time when magazines weren’t as flexible as they might be now, we’re renegotiating lower rates and better positioning–but for more pages. We’re ripping up the last few years, starting from scratch, and doing more business–but negotiating a better deal.

Lawrence Burstein: Maybe the fourth quarter is about managing expectations. People are hoping the fourth quarter will wipe away the difficulties of the first two quarters. That’s because the fourth quarter is always better than the first three, no matter what. The fourth quarter is always going to be more buoyant, but I don’t think it will replace what’s been diminished.

Brooks: Some companies are being run by people who have never lived through a recession in advertising or in the economy. We’ve been through a recession. Maybe those people don’t realize that we’ve lived through this before and we can live through this again.

Clinton: Both on the buying side and the selling side, it’s a different environment. I read something in The Wall Street Journal the other day that said there are more than 16 million sellers in America and more than half of them never sold in soft times. Many of the sellers in the media world, if they’re 10 years out of school, have never had to sell in a tough environment. And many of the buyers who have never bought outside of flush times also have not been able to adjust. You can’t buy the same way you bought when times were flush, arid you can’t sell the same way.

Burstein: I had a sales manager once who said to me, “Everybody’s a big shot when the business is rolling in, but the real test comes when it’s not.” So this is the point where clients and sellers are being tested. Clients have to renegotiate to get better deals for themselves, and sellers have to be more clever.

Manly: If there’s so much inexperience out there, how are people feeling their way?

Clinton: Fortunately, there’s a lot of experience around–experienced people who are running businesses and who have been through downturns. But it’s incumbent upon management to go back and remember what that was like. Think about how you managed through it and teach and train and give younger people that dimension of their inexperience.

Manly: Some categories seem not to have been hit that badly–apparel, food, drugs, they’re all up, according to the latest PIB data. But computer, tech and media are down. Why do you think some of these other categories are up and haven’t been that affected?

Clinton: You gotta eat.

Brooks: [Category performance depends on] purchase cycles. [The food or toiletries categories have] a mini purchase cycle, a five-day purchase cycle versus a three-year purchase cycle for an automobile.

Manly: Is automotive bouncing back?

Clinton: It depends on the automotive company. Overall, the category is certainly a huge spender and continues to be a big spender in print. It’s like anything, any cycle. Some companies are spending more and some are spending less.

Burstein: There seems to be a lot of activity in the luxury market.

Manly: You’d think the luxury market would be down even more so, but it isn’t. Why?

Clinton: Part of it is a lot more product in production at different price points. Ten years ago, an automotive luxury market had two or three entries into the consumer marketplace, and they were all high-priced. Today the luxury marketers are very stratified in their pricing and their offerings.

Manly: Discounting. Are we seeing that pick up now? Are advertisers putting more pressure to cut rates?

Brooks: I think it’s just as prevalent with the publishing companies that always did it, but it might have cranked up a little bit. And it’s not with companies that never did it. They’ll make up for it in other ways–better added value, more added value.